Grains & Sugar Weekly

Wheat, corn and sugar remain under pressure from abundant or rapidly arriving supply, while soybean prices are supported by an exceptional acceleration in Chinese buying but still restrained by fund liquidation and strong harvest prospects.

• December Chicago wheat fell 5.4% on the week to $6.25, with US 2026/27 export sales 32.5% below last year at 392 million bushels and Argentina’s crop raised to 23.8 million metric tons.
• Prospective wheat supply is becoming a risk: US winter-wheat planting was 63% versus a 69% average, 49% of the area was in drought, and Russia cut its winter sowing plan to 19 million hectares from 20 million.
• December corn dropped 3.8% to $4.56 as US harvest progress reached 44% versus a 52% average; managed money reduced its net long by 82,002 contracts to 164,423, while cumulative exports trailed last year by 33.8%.
• Soybeans outperformed after China bought about 2.4 million metric tons since October 14, including a 104.4 million-bushel weekly US sales total with 80 million destined for China, but funds still cut their net long to 221,325 contracts and US harvest reached 64%.
• Sugar prices fell 2.9% despite Green Pool raising its 2026/27 global deficit estimate to 6.28 million metric tons; Brazilian rain delayed crushing, while hot and dry forecasts and near-record speculative length encouraged selling.

Takeaway: Near-term bearish forces dominate wheat and corn, but oversold technical conditions and possible improvement in demand could stabilize prices; soybeans need continued Chinese buying to overcome liquidation, while sugar’s deficit is not yet sufficient to offset harvest and positioning pressure.