Corn: Counting is Hard

The USDA’s unexpectedly large corn stocks count points to a materially looser 2026/27 balance sheet and leaves the market focused on whether demand estimates will be cut.

• NASS reported September 1 corn stocks of 2.095 billion bushels, versus a Reuters analyst average of 1.918 billion and a highest estimate of 2.005 billion; December futures fell 21 1/4 cents, or 4%, to $5.0075 per bushel.
• The stocks figure was 173 million bushels above the USDA’s September 2025/26 ending-stocks estimate, while NASS simultaneously cut 2025 crop production by 57 million bushels to 16.964 billion.
• Because exports of 3.425 billion bushels and food, seed and industrial use of 6.905 billion were unchanged, the full 230-million-bushel adjustment fell on feed and residual, 3.6% of that line.
• Teucrium’s calculation lowers implied old-crop use to 16.45 billion bushels and raises stocks-to-use to 12.7%, from the USDA’s prior 11.5%.
• Adding the 173 million bushels to 2026/27 beginning stocks would lift projected ending stocks from 1.567 billion to roughly 1.740 billion bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio from 9.7% to 10.8%, before any further feed-demand revision.

Takeaway: The October 9 WASDE is the key test: if USDA treats the 230-million-bushel shortfall as weaker livestock demand, carryout could rise above 1.740 billion bushels; December corn holding or failing to regain $5.00 will indicate whether traders accept the looser balance sheet.