Grains & Sugar Weekly

Soybeans are supported by harvest delays and meal tightness, but record fund length and weak export sales leave the market vulnerable to liquidation.

• November soybeans rose 15 1/2 cents for the week to $13.19, while December meal gained $12.40 to $371.00 as excessive rain slowed harvesting; Iowa was only 2% harvested versus a 5% average, although national progress reached 12%.
• Managed money held a record net long of 265,159 soybean contracts on September 22, while weekly export sales were just 582,400 metric tons, the third-lowest for that week in 30 years; the September 30 stocks report is expected to show 324 million bushels versus 325 million a year earlier.
• Wheat prices continued to weaken, with December Chicago wheat down 11 cents to $7.03 1/4 and about 10% below its August 28 contract high; US cumulative export sales were 31% behind last year, while managed money increased its Chicago net short to 12,016 contracts.
• A potential Black Sea corridor and renewed Russian shipments could pressure wheat further, but the physical flow remains far below normal: Russia’s September exports were estimated at 1 million tons versus 5 million a year earlier, and winter wheat planting was 17% complete against a 21% average.
• Corn was nearly unchanged at $5.28 1/4 despite a 29 3/4-cent weekly range; managed money reduced its record net long by 10,363 contracts to 404,097, export sales were 29% below last year, and ethanol output fell 6.5% to a 20-week low of 1.028 million barrels per day.
• Sugar gained 1.4% to 18.50 cents as Brazilian Center-South output fell 42.5% year on year in early September; StoneX cut its 2025/26 global surplus to 1.45 million tons, while a stronger dollar, weaker real and lower crude oil remained bearish offsets.

Takeaway: Commodity markets face sharply different balances, but the near-term direction depends on the September 30 stocks and expiry reports, China trade details, Black Sea negotiations, harvest progress and whether speculative funds continue reducing large positions.