Grains & Sugar Weekly

The grain complex is under pressure from large US crop supplies and fund liquidation, while sugar is tightening on weather-driven production risks in Brazil and India.

• December corn fell 5.8% on the week to $4.97 3/4 after USDA reported September 1 stocks of 2.095 billion bushels, 173 million above the September WASDE carryout and above every trade estimate.
• Corn managed money remained long 381,220 contracts on September 29, while StoneX estimated a 182.1-bushel-per-acre yield versus USDA's 178.5; a move toward the Pro Farmer estimate of 173.2 could instead support prices.
• March raw sugar rose 7.7% on the week to 19.93 cents per pound as excess rain could leave 35 million metric tons of Brazilian cane unprocessed, while StoneX sees Center-South output below 38 million tons versus an initial 40 million expectation.
• India's monsoon was 12.6% below average, Uttar Pradesh output fell to 8.95 million tons from 12.64 million over six years, and a StoneX forecast points to a 900,000-ton global sugar deficit in 2026/27.
• November soybeans fell 3.1% after China retained its 10% retaliatory tariff, although US cumulative sales were nearly double last year's level and 70% of the latest 42.4-million-bushel inspections went to China.
• Wheat prices weakened despite Russian export risks: SovEcon cut its export forecast by 4.7 million metric tons to 36.7 million, while US export sales remained 31% behind last year's pace and managed money turned net short 22,109 Chicago contracts.

Takeaway: Corn and wheat remain vulnerable to large supplies, fund liquidation and stronger harvest or planting progress, while sugar has the strongest bullish supply narrative but could retrace if Brazilian weather improves and mills increase sugar production; the October 9 WASDE, Unica's crush data and the next US-China tariff discussions are the key catalysts.