ARK’s Expected Share Price For Tesla In 2031

ARK’s updated model supports a $4,400 central Tesla share-price outcome in 2031, driven primarily by Robotaxi and Optimus rather than the legacy automotive business.

• The Monte Carlo model uses 32 independent inputs; its 25th- and 75th-percentile outcomes imply share prices of $3,300 and $5,000, versus $450 in 2025.
• Robotaxi is expected to represent about 80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from roughly 90% in the 2024 model, while the base case assumes about 8 million cumulative robotaxis and $753 billion of ride-hail revenue.
• Tesla launched robotaxi services in Austin in June 2025 and expanded to seven cities across three states, completing more than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles in about seven months; ARK estimates operating costs per mile could be 40% below Waymo’s next-generation robotaxi.
• Optimus is modeled at roughly 1 million externally sold robots and $212 billion of revenue in the base case by 2031, compared with Elon Musk’s guidance of 100 million to 1 billion units; ARK estimates human-level proficiency at about 4,000 MW of compute.
• The model assumes Tesla’s AI-infrastructure spending rises from about $7 billion cumulatively at December 2025 to $225 billion by the end of 2031, while total revenue, EBITDA, and market capitalization reach $1.449 trillion, $902 billion, and $17.5 trillion in the base case.
• ARK excludes Tesla Semi, most FSD licensing upside, China robotaxi operations, and a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger from the standalone valuation; it estimates a combined Tesla–SpaceX $3.8 trillion of revenue and $2.7 trillion of EBIT in 2031 if a merger occurs.

Takeaway: ARK’s bullish valuation depends on rapid scaling of autonomous ride-hailing, Optimus, and AI infrastructure, but the forecast remains highly uncertain, excludes several potential sources of upside, and reflects ARK’s long-term positive bias toward Tesla.