#530: Recursion’s Phenomics AI Platform Delivers Clinical Proof Points, & More

ARK argues that recent clinical and commercial evidence supports the value of AI-driven discovery and frontier AI, while warning that the strongest tests for several companies still lie ahead.

• Recursion’s phenomics platform produced a 47% median reduction in total polyp burden after 12 weeks with REC-4881 in FAP, and 55% in the upper GI tract; 6 of 12 patients improved by at least one Spigelman stage.
• In the early DAHLIA oncology trial, Recursion’s RBM39 degrader REC-1245 generated two confirmed partial responses in endometrial cancer and one unconfirmed liver-cancer response; at doses of 45 mg or more, 11 of 12 patients benefited.
• Sanofi exercised an option on a potential first-in-class oral inflammatory-disease treatment, triggering a $10 million milestone and bringing cumulative milestone payments to $144 million, with more than $300 million potentially remaining.
• ARK estimates that leading frontier AI labs reached a combined $150 billion annualized revenue run rate, up fivefold year over year, while Anthropic’s adjusted gross margin was reportedly 85% and industry revenue remained below 0.4% of the global knowledge-work wage pool.
• Tesla’s new Roadster reportedly reaches 60 mph in 0.81 seconds and 230 mph, using suction and SpaceX-developed cold-gas thrusters, while CoreWeave’s 2032 unsecured bond yield rose to 15% from 9.625% at issuance and its roughly $50 billion of debt and leases were tied to a $104 billion backlog.

Takeaway: ARK sees validation for Recursion’s discovery engine and continued upside for frontier AI, but investors should await larger clinical datasets, FDA feedback on the FAP trial path, endometrial-cancer expansion data and clearer evidence that CoreWeave’s contract-backed financing can withstand weaker AI demand.