Amazon earnings: between a typical report and July's 15% jump

Amazon’s options imply a larger-than-usual but smaller-than-July earnings move, so the choice is between selling volatility around a range and buying it for a breakout.

• Amazon’s eight report reactions from October 2024 to July 2026 were evenly split between rises and falls, with an absolute median and average move of about 6%; the latest reaction was a 15.3% jump.
• The 30 October 2026 at-the-money straddle costs about USD 19.08 around a USD 249.09 share price, implying a 7.7% move and a roughly USD 230–268 range.
• AWS growth, operating income guided at USD 22.5–26.5 billion, and planned 2026 investment of about USD 220 billion may matter more than reported net income, which included an approximately USD 53 billion investment gain mainly from Anthropic.
• The illustrative iron condor sells the 230 put and 267.50 call while buying 220 and 277.50 protection, collecting about USD 320 per contract with a maximum loss of about USD 680.
• The illustrative long strangle buys the 240 put and 257.50 call for about USD 1,148 per contract, with break-evens near USD 228.52 and USD 268.98; six of the last eight report moves would have stayed within the condor’s break-evens, while three would have exceeded the strangle’s.

Takeaway: The condor suits the view that Amazon behaves near its historical 6% move, whereas the strangle requires a move large enough to overcome implied-volatility crush; the eight-observation sample is small, and the Federal Reserve decision and Microsoft’s results could move the shares before Amazon reports.