#529: OpenAI’s $20 Billion Reporting Gap Unsettles The AI Trade, & More

The newsletter argues that rapid AI progress is reshaping the valuation of AI companies, the security timetable for crypto, and SpaceX’s competitive position in mobile telecommunications.

• OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate was reported at nearly $50 billion at the end of September, versus a previously rumored $70 billion, while differing gross and net revenue conventions explain much of the gap; the company is reportedly seeking about $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation.
• Even at $50 billion, OpenAI’s revenue would have risen 2.5x in nine months from $20 billion in December, although Anthropic’s reported growth was about 7x from December through July; comparable IPO disclosures should clarify the two companies’ trajectories.
• Justin Drake warned on October 7 that improving AI mathematics could eventually threaten ECDSA, which secures Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchains; he recommends unused addresses because signing a transaction exposes the public key, although the newsletter says the risk is not currently existential.
• Recent AI mathematics results include an OpenAI-generated solution to the Navier–Stokes problem and 722 mathematical results released in the same month, reinforcing the case for accelerating crypto’s transition toward post-quantum or other safer signatures.
• SpaceX agreed to buy up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz spectrum for roughly $8 billion, while the FCC authorized up to 15,000 next-generation direct-to-cell satellites versus about 650 today; the new spectrum is intended to improve indoor coverage and turn Starlink Mobile into a fuller carrier.

Takeaway: The authors see AI-related market sensitivity, cryptographic migration risk, and SpaceX’s spectrum and satellite buildout as increasingly material investment themes, while noting that crypto vulnerabilities remain prospective and Starlink still has far less spectrum than incumbent carriers.