Sept '26 WASDE Analysis

The September WASDE points to a tighter corn and soybean outlook but a looser global wheat balance, with grain prices supported mainly by corn scarcity.

• U.S. corn yield fell to 178.5 bushels per acre and production dropped 213 million bushels to 15,800 million, while ending stocks declined 86 million to 1,567 million.
• Corn new-crop stocks-to-use fell below 10% to 9.7%, and USDA raised the 2026/27 season-average price forecast by $0.30 to $4.80 per bushel despite cutting feed and residual use by 150 million bushels.
• Soybean production rose 16 million bushels to 4,535 million, but stronger exports and record crush reduced ending stocks by 10 million to 310 million; the price forecast increased $0.60 to $12.00 per bushel.
• Wheat's U.S. balance sheet was unchanged, with ending stocks at 717 million bushels, but USDA raised its price forecast by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel, explicitly citing higher U.S. corn prices.
• Global wheat ending stocks increased 3.0 million tons to 276.29 million, stocks-to-use rose to 33.4%, and supplies expanded on larger crops in Australia, Canada and Ukraine, despite disrupted Black Sea logistics.

Takeaway: The author sees corn and soybeans as the tighter parts of the grain complex and places the market in Golden Grain Cycle Stage #1, but wheat's price support appears derivative of corn strength while global wheat inventories are increasing.