Grains & Sugar Weekly 11/06/2026

Agricultural markets face further downside risks from expanding supply expectations and fund selling, while oversold positioning leaves room for sharp reversals around upcoming data and geopolitical events.

• Sugar fell 5.8% over the week to 18.24 cents per pound, while Rabobank forecasts Center-South Brazil's 2027/28 output at 42.6 million metric tons, up 13.9% from this year's 37.4 million. Lower crude oil prices could also reduce ethanol demand and encourage Brazilian mills to produce more sugar.
• Brazil's real weakened 1.4% to 5.52 per dollar, increasing the local-currency incentive to export sugar. Managed money remained net long 223,784 contracts, while Rabobank still expects a 2 million ton global deficit in 2026/27 and a 2027 price range of 17 to 19 cents.
• Soybeans ended a nine-session losing streak on Friday, but the complex remained under pressure as StoneX's customer survey estimated a record 55.0 bushels per acre yield, above the 53.5-bushel trade estimate. US export sales were 1.5 million metric tons for the week ended October 29, up 76% cumulatively from a year earlier, while funds reduced their net long by 51,054 contracts.
• Chicago wheat suffered a tenth consecutive weekly loss as Abu Dhabi peace talks reduced the war premium, with cumulative US export sales down 28% year on year and funds holding an 87,126-contract net short. The 14-day relative strength index near 22 creates short-covering potential if talks fail or Black Sea fighting expands, while a shipping deal would add pressure.
• Corn declined for a sixth straight week as funds cut their net long by 72,318 contracts to 8,795, after selling about 405,000 contracts in seven weeks. StoneX estimated a 183.1-bushel-per-acre yield against the trade estimate of 180.3, while the resumption of harvest and further farmer selling could weigh on prices.

Takeaway: Investors should focus on crude oil and UNICA data for sugar, the USDA WASDE report for soybean and corn yields, and the Abu Dhabi talks for wheat, with fund positioning making wheat especially vulnerable to a sharp move in either direction.