IPOs, Oil and Gold

The 2026 IPO surge is less exceptional relative to market capitalization than headlines suggest, while depleted oil buffers could still produce a binary price reaction and gold is becoming more constructive as non-flow factors regain influence.

• Bloomberg estimates about $180 billion of IPO proceeds in 2026, but that equals only 0.28% of the S&P 500’s nearly $65 trillion market capitalization, matching 2021 and remaining below the dot-com era peaks.
• SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising roughly $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation; its shares were up 27% shortly after launch, while Goldman said AI revenue would need to reach $322 billion by 2030 to justify the valuation.
• SpaceX cannot enter the S&P 500 before June 2027 and profitability, but its Nasdaq 100 weighting could generate about $3 billion of related buying within 15 days and roughly $16 billion of passive demand across major indices; the limited free float, lock-up expiries and Musk’s 80% voting control make the setup fragile.
• Oil was restrained by alternative pipelines, higher production, strategic-reserve releases and previously bloated inventories; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell substantially, while China’s oil imports dropped more than during COVID shutdowns, although depleted buffers leave greater shortage risk if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists.
• Gold rose 65% in 2025 without support from accelerating inflation, real yields, the dollar or a major confidence crisis, then fell 25% from $5,400 to $4,100 per ounce after hostilities began; Purpose’s model finds that flows recently dominated the other factors, but those factors are starting to regain influence.

Takeaway: Investors should not confuse IPO oversubscription with durable performance, should expect oil’s next move to depend mainly on whether flows through Hormuz normalize, and can become moderately more constructive on gold after its correction, while recognizing that both oil and gold remain highly path-dependent.