Global Investment Views - September 2026

Amundi recommends a mildly pro-risk but highly selective and diversified allocation as policy credibility, fiscal risks and AI-related leverage come under greater scrutiny.

• Global equities have held up on strong earnings, while 30-year US Treasury yields reached their highest level in almost two decades; the resulting policy and fiscal uncertainty supports diversification and limits concentration risk.
• The Fed is expected to remain higher-for-longer, while Amundi anticipates four Bank of Japan hikes before mid-2027, taking the policy rate to 2%; faster Japanese normalisation could increase global bond volatility.
• In fixed income, Amundi favours curve steepening in the US, euro area and UK, peripherals over euro-area core bonds, global investment-grade credit, subordinated over high-yield debt, and selected emerging-market hard-currency bonds, particularly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• In equities, it remains cautious on the concentrated and highly valued US market, positive on Europe, more constructive on Japan, and supportive of emerging markets; it favours AI-resistant sectors while remaining selective on AI enablers because of profitability, leverage and capital-allocation risks.
• Amundi increases its positive stance on gold because of central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, debt-sustainability concerns and a softer dollar, while favouring higher-carry emerging-market currencies such as the Brazilian real and Turkish lira.

Takeaway: Investors should retain moderate risk exposure but express it through carry, regional diversification, resilient business models and selective credit rather than strong directional bets, while monitoring long-end yields, inflation, liquidity and leverage.