Global Investment Views - October 2026

Amundi advocates a mildly risk-on portfolio built around regional diversification, selective exposure and carry as inflation persists and central banks turn more hawkish.

• In September, the average yield on global government debt approached 4%, its highest level since 2007, while higher short-term rates and issuance pressure kept yield curves flat and long maturities vulnerable.
• Geopolitical risks remain central: Brent reached $105 before easing, but Amundi expects it to fall towards $80 by early 2027; gas, grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, and a possible Super El Niño could make inflation more persistent.
• In fixed income, Amundi prefers intermediate-maturity US bonds, euro-area duration and peripherals, global investment-grade credit—especially EUR IG subordinated debt—and selected emerging-market bonds from Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• In equities, it favours Europe over the US on earnings momentum, valuation and diversification, remains positive on Japan and emerging markets, and targets resilient sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, industrials, materials and financials.
• AI remains supportive of technology, industrial equipment, utilities and data-centre infrastructure, but higher rates and competition for capital make capex monetisation and balance-sheet strength increasingly important; in currencies, Amundi prefers high-carry exposures such as AUD, NOK and TRY and remains cautious on the dollar.

Takeaway: Investors should maintain modest risk exposure but avoid broad beta, favouring regional and security selection, intermediate duration, quality credit, resilient equities, gold and carry while monitoring inflation, energy rerouting and the sustainability of AI investment returns.