Global Investment Views - November 2026

Amundi recommends a mildly risk-on, diversified portfolio focused on quality, scarcity and selective exposure amid persistent inflation, high rates and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Energy supply has tightened, with effective oil supply estimated at around 80% of pre-Iran-war levels; prices are expected to stay elevated through year-end before easing during the first half of 2027.
• The Federal Reserve and ECB are each expected to raise rates in December and potentially again in early 2027, while fiscal deficits and competition for capital should keep pressure on long-dated government bonds.
• Amundi prefers Eurozone duration, peripheral debt, UK duration, global and EU investment-grade credit, subordinated and short-dated bonds, with financials, telecoms, technology and pharmaceuticals favoured within credit.
• In equities, the strategy avoids expensive technology mega-caps and favours Europe, Japan, defensive sectors, industrials and materials, while remaining selective in emerging markets because AI capital spending and Chinese overcapacity create uneven earnings prospects.
• Multi-asset positioning has shifted toward the US and Japan over Europe, with constructive views on selected emerging-market local and hard-currency debt, Brazilian real, Italian BTPs, euro investment-grade credit and gold.

Takeaway: Investors should favour scarce resources, strong balance sheets, selective duration and diversified hedges, while monitoring energy-driven inflation, fiscal stress and the cash-generation prospects of AI investments.