Fiera Capital Global Asset Allocation Monthly Update: September 2026

Fiera Capital argues that resilient risk assets are masking a fragile macroeconomic outlook in which inflation, trade tensions, geopolitical risks and AI-related borrowing pressures keep central banks cautious.

• In August, the S&P 500 rose 2.6%, the S&P/TSX 3.0%, MSCI EAFE 1.8% and emerging-market equities 3.2%; gold gained 9.82% to USD 4,446.80 per ounce, while the US 10-year yield reached 4.75%.
• Canada grew at a 3.3% annualized pace in the second quarter, but core inflation rose to 2.0% in July and new US tariffs and retaliation create simultaneous upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
• US core PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.3% year over year in July, while China’s July industrial production grew 4.5%, fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7% and retail sales increased only 0.6%, raising the risk that China misses its 4.5%-5.0% growth target.
• Fiera assigns probabilities of 45% to sustained inflation, 30% to stagflation, 15% to recession and 10% to a productivity boom; its base scenario implies global growth of 3.0%, US inflation of 3.4% and a US 10-year yield of 4.75% over the next 12-18 months.
• Under the recession scenario, Fiera projects US GDP growth of -1.0%, US 10-year yields of 3.0%, US forward earnings of 275 and a 20.0x forward P/E; under the productivity-boom scenario, it projects 3.0% US growth and a 23.0x forward P/E.

Takeaway: The portfolio outlook favours patience and resilience rather than an aggressive easing bet, because the most likely outcome is sustained inflation while stagflation and recession together retain 45% probability; investors should treat the forecasts as hypothetical estimates with substantial uncertainty.