Fiera Capital Global Asset Allocation Monthly Update: November 2026

Fiera Capital expects a higher-for-longer macroeconomic regime to keep inflation and interest rates elevated, while geopolitical, trade and artificial-intelligence risks create a wide range of outcomes for multi-asset markets.

• Global equities fell 1.7% in October, with the Nasdaq down 6.7% and emerging-market equities down 8.1%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 5.0% as investors rotated away from megacap technology stocks.
• Fixed income rebounded as risk aversion restored bonds' safe-haven role: the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index gained 2.4% and the FTSE Canada Bond Universe rose 1.5%, despite higher oil prices.
• The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75%-4.0%, while US core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.1% year over year in September; Fiera therefore sees US rates continuing to grind higher into 2027.
• Fiera assigns a 45% probability to sustained inflation, 30% to stagflation, 15% to recession and 10% to a productivity boom, with the main risks coming from Middle East energy disruptions, tariffs and weak Chinese domestic demand.
• Under the sustained-inflation scenario, Fiera forecasts US GDP growth of 2.2%, inflation of 3.7%, a 10-year US yield of 5.50% and WTI oil at $70 per barrel; under recession, the corresponding figures are -1.0%, 4.0%, 3.00% and $60.

Takeaway: Investors should prepare for higher-for-longer rates and sustained inflation as the base case, while retaining flexibility for stagflation or recession if energy and trade shocks intensify; a productivity-driven easing cycle is possible but assigned only a 10% probability.