Made in Canada: A New Structural Catalyst for Canadian Industrial Real Estate

Canada’s industrial real estate cycle has turned, while a new federal focus on productive capacity should create a durable demand catalyst for industrial space.

• In Q2 2026, national availability fell 10 basis points to 5.5%, net absorption reached 3.9 million square feet for a third consecutive positive quarter, and new supply dropped to 2.4 million square feet, its lowest quarterly level since Q3 2017.
• Federal capital investment is expected to rise from roughly $45 billion in 2024-25 to nearly $60 billion annually through the end of the decade, with the broader Build Canada Strong framework identifying approximately $450 billion of cash spending over five years.
• The most industrially relevant commitments include $81.8 billion of incremental defence spending over five years, $51 billion for infrastructure through the Build Communities Strong Fund, $5 billion for trade corridors, and $2 billion for critical minerals.
• Defence, infrastructure and trade spending should support specialized manufacturing, supplier networks, small- and mid-bay facilities, distribution, truck terminals and port logistics through procurement, construction, inventories and domestic supply chains.
• Fiera’s internal framework scores markets on documented federal investment, established industrial clusters and supply-chain infrastructure, identifying Southern Ontario as the market with the broadest absolute exposure and Alberta as the stronger relative-value opportunity.

Takeaway: Investors should expect specialized manufacturing to receive the most direct benefit, while small- and mid-bay industrial properties may capture broader second-order demand; the timing of rent growth and valuation recovery still depends on continued absorption of excess space.