Dutch economy looks set to beat expectations in the third quarter

Dutch GDP growth is likely to exceed ING’s initial estimate in the third quarter of 2026, potentially reaching 0.8% to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter.

• Only two months of third-quarter hard data are available, but September survey indicators generally point to further improvement.
• Strong goods export growth, following an already strong second quarter, combined with muted imports, could make trade a significant contributor to GDP growth.
• Household consumption is expected to support growth as wages continue to outpace inflation, consumer confidence improved in all three months of 3Q26, and some pensioners received higher incomes after the transition to the new defined-contribution system.
• Public consumption is still expanding gradually because of rising healthcare needs, while the minority government’s austerity measures have not yet taken effect.
• Investment indicators are mixed because low industrial capacity utilisation, electricity-grid congestion, shortages of skilled installers and limited nitrogen-permit capacity constrain spending; inventories are expected to make only a minor negative contribution.

Takeaway: ING has raised the plausible outcome from its initial 0.5% quarter-on-quarter forecast, although a late-quarter rebound in imports or weaker September data could prevent growth from reaching 0.8% to 1.1%.