CEE & CCA week ahead: Hungarian and Czech growth, plus CCA rate decisions

Hungarian and Czech growth data should diverge next week, while Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are likely to keep policy rates unchanged despite different inflation dynamics.

• Hungary will publish its preliminary Q3 GDP estimate on Friday; agriculture is expected to weigh on growth, while new export capacity in industry and continued services strength should offset it.
• ING maintains its Hungarian full-year growth forecast at 1.9% and expects activity to accelerate in the fourth quarter, despite a quarterly slowdown in Q3.
• Czech annual growth is expected to weaken further in Q3, although quarter-on-quarter growth may improve because the Hormuz conflict prompted pre-stocking before prices rose and products became scarcer.
• Czech business and consumer confidence are expected to deteriorate in October as prices rise, bond markets sell off, tighter monetary policy becomes more likely, and France faces a crisis; the pre-stocking boost should fade around year-end.
• Uzbekistan's policy rate is expected to remain at 14.00%, with a 50bp cut as a close alternative, while Azerbaijan's refinancing rate should stay at 6.50% as September headline CPI eased to 5.5% year on year.

Takeaway: The near-term outlook is mixed, with temporary support for Czech activity and resilient Hungarian annual growth, while both Central Asian central banks are expected to pause; Uzbekistan could begin gradual easing later if restrictive conditions persist, whereas Azerbaijan retains an upside risk to rates if global inflation remains persistent.