Why investors may want to ignore some market headlines

Headline risks around oil, rates, debt and the Fed look less threatening than the fundamentals supporting the bull market.

• Oil reached $110 a barrel on April 7 but stood at $91 on September 3 and remained below its April high; energy shipments around the Arabian Peninsula had recovered to roughly 80% of pre-conflict levels.
• US nominal GDP was growing at about 6.6%, while the 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.75%, a combination Levitt views as normalization rather than a debt-driven crisis.
• Historical context supports that view: long-term Treasury yields were consistently above nominal economic growth for much of the 1980s and 1990s, whereas the post-2008 period was the exception.
• The case for a prolonged Fed hiking cycle appears weak because inflation expectations were contained and job growth was modest; one September hike would not necessarily signal a new campaign.
• The more important risks are a sharp pullback in hyperscaler capital expenditure or a loss of financing for AI infrastructure, data centers and related bonds; so far, S&P 500 operating earnings rose 45% in the second quarter of 2026 and AI spending and financing remained intact.

Takeaway: Investors should focus less on alarming headlines and more on whether corporate earnings, hyperscaler spending and AI financing begin to deteriorate, while recognizing that these risks remain uncertain.