Transport: The rewiring of global trade

Resilient supply chains and industrial investment are creating a structural opportunity in transport infrastructure even without exceptional growth in global trade.

• Red Sea diversions around the Cape of Good Hope add up to 4,000 nautical miles and one to two weeks to Asia–Europe voyages, requiring more ships and containers for the same goods volume.
• Global seaborne ton-miles rose 5.9% in 2024, the fastest pace since 2011, while fleet tonnage increased only 2.2%, highlighting the effect of longer and less direct routes.
• Supply chains are shifting from just-in-time to just-in-case, with sourcing from China declining since 2018 while U.S. imports from Mexico, Vietnam and India increased; more factories, hubs, inventory and alternative routes require more infrastructure.
• Investment in AI, power, advanced manufacturing, data centers and semiconductor facilities is also generating transport demand because these projects need materials, equipment, workers and continuing links to suppliers and customers.
• Industrial companies may sell stakes in essential rail, port, terminal or logistics assets to redirect capital toward manufacturing, technology and R&D, creating partnership opportunities for infrastructure investors; scarce rights-of-way, land, permits and network connections can constrain new supply.

Takeaway: Investors should look beyond freight-volume growth and focus on difficult-to-replicate assets where constrained supply, contractual protections, customer expansion and network insight can support higher utilization and attractive returns, while recognizing that demand alone does not guarantee an opportunity.