Transport infrastructure: The rewiring of global trade

Resilient and more distributed supply chains can increase the value of transport infrastructure even without strong growth in global trade.

• Red Sea diversions add up to 4,000 nautical miles and one-to-two weeks to Asia–Europe voyages, requiring more vessels and containers for the same goods volume.
• Global seaborne ton-miles rose 5.9% in 2024, the fastest pace since 2011, while tonnage increased only 2.2%, a gap UNCTAD largely attributes to rerouting.
• U.S. sourcing has shifted since 2018, with imports from China declining while imports from Mexico, Vietnam and India increased, creating more factories, assembly sites and distribution hubs to connect.
• Investment in AI, power, advanced manufacturing, data centers and semiconductor facilities is creating additional transport demand during construction and operations; U.S. manufacturing investment remains well above pre-pandemic levels despite moderating from its 2024 peak.
• Attractive opportunities are most likely where rail corridors, ports and terminals are difficult to replicate, supply is constrained and contracts provide protections such as minimum-volume commitments or inflation-linked pricing.

Takeaway: Investors should look beyond freight-volume growth toward corporate partnerships, difficult-to-replicate assets and expansions of established networks, while recognizing that demand alone is insufficient without constrained supply and resilient cash flows.