The fuel price drag continues

The renewed fuel-price shock is likely to keep weighing on road traffic, particularly in diesel-dependent European markets, while accelerating the shift toward electric vehicles.

• More than six months into the Middle East conflict, retail petrol and diesel prices have reached record highs and risen faster than crude prices as refining capacity remains stretched, especially for diesel.
• France, Portugal, Austria and Spain are particularly exposed because diesel represents a larger share of passenger vehicles and car usage is relatively high; in France, filling an average passenger-car tank now costs about EUR 120, while toll-road traffic volumes are weakening.
• Spain and Portugal’s fuel subsidies and Australia’s removal of fuel excise provide short-term support, while hybrid and electric vehicles are less exposed to pump prices; household wealth and income also help explain why Australian traffic has remained resilient.
• France faces especially strong risks because fiscal pressure limits government support, while fuel shortages could produce further price spikes or rationing before conditions normalise.
• European Union electric-vehicle registrations rose 54% year on year in August 2026 and 33.3% year to date, compared with 29.7% growth in 2025, suggesting that the energy shock may accelerate the move away from petrol and diesel vehicles.

Takeaway: The fuel shock is not expected to create a disastrous overall outlook, but it helps explain divergent traffic trends across major markets and creates near-term headwinds for road infrastructure, with a possible long-term benefit for electric-vehicle adoption.