Riksbank minutes: Hawkish and united on direction

The Riksbank’s September minutes signal a broadly hawkish policy direction, with a November rate hike the most likely outcome as inflation risks increasingly outweigh labour-market weakness.

• On 24 September, the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged but indicated a 65% probability of a November hike and a 40% probability of another hike in February.
• The bank’s economic outlook has improved, with stronger GDP growth, PMI readings and surveys, while the labour market is beginning to recover and weighs less against rate increases.
• Inflation risks have risen because oil-related prices may remain high, supply disruptions linked to the Middle East persist, firms may pass higher costs through to prices, and the weaker SEK raises imported-inflation risks.
• Thedéen and Seim explicitly supported a November hike, while Bunge said the policy rate was likely to rise before year-end; Jansson supported the revised rate path but gave no clear timing.
• Hjelm considered a rate of 2% reasonable during 2026 and another hike in the first half of 2027, although he judged the rate path slightly high and remained cautious about over-tightening.

Takeaway: Nordea expects a November hike followed by at least one further increase, with risks tilted toward earlier or additional tightening because the Riksbank is more optimistic about growth and increasingly focused on upside inflation risks, especially from oil prices and the weaker SEK.