The Netherlands defies Europe’s tech trend thanks to ASML

ASML has become a major engine of Dutch growth, with its semiconductor-equipment ecosystem capturing a substantial share of the global AI investment boom while increasing the Netherlands’ concentration risks.

• The machinery industry’s share of Dutch gross value-added reached around 2.7% in current prices and 2.9% in constant prices by 2025, after accelerating since 2017 with demand for ICT goods, cloud services and AI infrastructure.
• ASML generated €33.7 billion of the Dutch machinery industry’s turnover in 2025, or about half of the sector, and its direct contribution to Dutch GDP rose from 0.1% in 1995 to 1.3% in 2025; ING expects 1.6% in 2026 based on ASML’s midpoint revenue expectation of €44.5 billion.
• ING estimates that domestic value added linked to ASML’s intermediate consumption contributed 0.3% of the Dutch economy in 2025 and could reach 0.4% in 2026, while investment added 0.2% in 2025 and is expected to remain at 0.2% in 2026.
• Combining direct, supply-chain and investment effects, the ASML cluster contributed an estimated 3.7% of Dutch gross value-added in 2025 and is forecast to reach 2.2% for ASML alone in 2026; R&D represented about 57% of the machinery sector’s gross capital formation.
• The benefits may extend beyond measured output through productivity spillovers to suppliers, but ASML’s cyclical exposure, export restrictions, foreign-input disruptions and shortages of talent and space create vulnerabilities; Nokia’s share of Finnish GDP fell from nearly 4% around 1998-2000 to 0.5% in 2011.

Takeaway: ASML should support Dutch growth and productivity as the AI investment cycle expands, but investors and policymakers should account for the growing sensitivity of the economy to semiconductor cycles, geopolitical constraints and the risk of a future company-specific shock.