Our multi-asset investment views - September 2026

Schroders remains pro-cyclical but is reducing risk selectively as market valuations and correlated macroeconomic threats increase.

• The firm expects benign growth, a low risk of US recession and resilient corporate earnings to support equities, while maintaining a positive view on US equities and the Nasdaq.
• It has downgraded Asia technology, global emerging markets, China and emerging Asia ex-China to neutral after strong performance, elevated valuations and weaker Chinese growth conditions.
• Schroders is tactically long the US 10-year Treasury because market rate expectations now match its forecasts, while it remains negative on corporate credit because tight spreads offer limited compensation for leverage, issuance and AI-related financing needs.
• Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and depleted strategic oil reserves support energy and mining stocks, while central-bank purchases, seasonal effects and recovering investment demand support gold.
• The dollar has been downgraded to neutral because of possible Japanese intervention and doubts about the Federal Reserve's willingness to contain inflation; the renminbi remains positive, while the yen and Swiss franc have been upgraded to neutral.

Takeaway: Investors should retain exposure to equities, commodities and selected government bonds, but temper the pro-cyclical stance because the central scenario is increasingly priced in and risks around inflation, geopolitics, fiscal conditions and credit have become more correlated.