Schroders Equity Lens November 2026: your go-to guide to global equity markets

AI could weaken a major structural source of US equity demand by affecting the high earners whose retirement contributions support the market.

• Half of global stocks are in a bear market, and one in five has fallen by at least 40%, while most broad markets still show healthy double-digit 12-month returns.
• Emerging-market earnings expectations are 76% for 2026 and 26% for 2027, compared with 34% and 18% for the US, while emerging markets trade at a forward P/E of 9x, their lowest multiple in 20 years.
• The US defined-contribution and IRA retirement system totals $33 trillion, roughly equal to all non-US equity markets combined, and receives about $1 trillion in annual contributions.
• An estimated $500 billion of those contributions flows into US equities, with gross inflows in 2024 exceeding one-third of net demand from all other investors combined.
• The highest-earning 20% of workers contribute an estimated $200 billion to $300 billion, while employment among junior high earners in AI-exposed industries has already weakened.

Takeaway: Investors should monitor whether AI-driven pressure on highly paid workers can reduce the steady retirement inflows that have supported US equities, even as current earnings expectations and market returns remain strong.