Novartis results: buying lower or selling higher, when the big moves come from elsewhere

Novartis options can monetize an investor’s willingness to buy at CHF 120 or sell at CHF 138, but the main risk may come from news after the results rather than from the results day itself.

• Novartis reports third-quarter 2026 results on 27 October, with its 2026 outlook unchanged in July: slightly higher sales and slightly lower core operating income as generic Entresto reduces US sales.
• Across the last eight results days, the shares moved about 1.9% on average and never more than 4.2%; the largest recent decline was 10.9% on 8 September after a second late-stage trial failure in one week.
• Saxo option prices for the 20 November expiry imply a roughly 6.1% move, or about CHF 121 to CHF 137 from the CHF 128.88 share price, because the options cover the results and 24 further days of news.
• A cash-secured 120 put at about CHF 0.93 could generate CHF 93 on CHF 12,000 of reserved cash, with a CHF 119.07 break-even and a maximum hypothetical loss of CHF 11,907 if the shares fell to zero.
• A covered 138 call at about CHF 0.96 could generate CHF 96 on 100 shares, with a combined hypothetical maximum profit of about CHF 1,008, but it leaves the holder exposed to the downside and caps gains above CHF 138.

Takeaway: Selling the put suits an investor comfortable owning Novartis after a sharp fall, while the covered call suits a holder willing to sell near CHF 138; neither strategy removes substantial downside risk, and the options premium may not collapse quickly after the report because the expiry extends well beyond it.