North America real estate market outlook Q4 2026

North American real estate should deliver positive but income-led returns, with retail, healthcare, data centres and selected coastal residential and office markets more resilient than oversupplied segments.

• The US economy is expected to remain resilient through 2026, with real consumption up 2.6% and core durable goods orders up 11% year-on-year in August, but September payroll growth slowed to 29,000.
• Inflation is forecast at 3.3% at end-2026 after core inflation reached 3.0% in August, while Aberdeen expects one further 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in December before an extended pause.
• North American real estate returned 4.9% in the 12 months to June, but capital growth was only 0.3%; retail warehouses posted 2.3% capital growth, offices fell 2.3%, and the healthcare- and data-centre-led Other sector delivered 8.8% capital growth and a 15% total return.
• Office performance is highly polarised: national vacancy is 21%, while New York availability fell to 12.3% over two years and San Francisco Class A/B rents rose 11–15% year-on-year to September; San Francisco investment volumes increased 124% year-on-year.
• Retail delivered a 6.9% total return in major cities, including a 5.5% income return, while multifamily returns reached 10.5% in San Francisco and 8.2% in Chicago; however, Sun Belt supply and elevated Treasury yields threaten weaker markets.

Takeaway: Investors should prioritise income and resilient niches such as grocery-anchored retail, healthcare, New York multifamily and office, and selected data centres, while allowing for downside risks from higher bond yields, global tensions and oversupply.