Future minerals: powering the next growth era

Critical minerals are entering a structurally tighter market, creating long-term opportunities for selective mining-equity investors rather than a simple tactical commodity trade.

• Copper has risen more than 36% in the 12 months to 30 September 2026, while permitting delays, labour shortages, rising costs and ageing assets are constraining new mine supply.
• The IEA estimates that copper supply could be around 30% below projected requirements by 2035; average ore grades have fallen about 40% since 1991, and only 14 significant discoveries were made in the past decade versus 225 in the previous 23 years.
• Electrification and AI are increasing demand: data centres could represent 2% of global copper demand and 3% of rare-earth demand by 2030.
• Lithium prices have risen more than 80% over 12 months but fallen 17% over six months, including 14% in September; Aberdeen expects near-term conditions to weaken but sees longer-term demand growing fivefold by 2040 under current policies.
• China refines 19 of the 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA, with about 70% average market share; its 2024 shares were 60% of magnet-rare-earth mining and 91% of refining, encouraging governments and industries to diversify supply.

Takeaway: Investors should favour high-quality, low-cost producers with strong balance sheets, suitable jurisdictions and execution capability, while recognising that uranium, copper, lithium, rare earths and tungsten offer a long-term structural theme rather than a short-term trade.