Monetary news still weakening

Global real money momentum is weakening further, pointing to a prolonged deterioration in manufacturing demand and stronger monetary headwinds for markets.

• Global six-month real narrow money momentum slowed again in September and may have reached its lowest level since late 2024.
• The projected decline was driven by weaker nominal money growth, while CPI momentum was little changed but is expected to rise in Q4.
• The slowdown in real money momentum supports a forecast for global manufacturing PMI new orders to decline through at least the end of Q1 2027.
• The weakness reflects declines in China, Japan and India, while Brazil remains weak; the September estimate is not yet final because US and eurozone data are due the following week.
• Global six-month industrial output growth may have recovered in September on solid US and Chinese data, potentially widening the gap between output and real money growth.

Takeaway: The combination of weaker real money growth and comparatively firmer industrial output suggests increasing monetary pressure on markets, although the September reading remains subject to revision.