Investing in the Resource Security Supercycle

Resource security is creating a multi-decade investment theme as nations and companies prioritize reliable energy, critical minerals and resilient physical infrastructure alongside decarbonization.

• Energy policy is shifting toward an “all-of-the-above” model: global LNG exports are expected to increase by more than half by 2035, while renewables are projected to surpass coal in primary energy in the 2040s and nuclear power supports low-carbon electricity and energy security.
• Recent shocks, including the 2022 European energy crisis and the near-halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, have exposed vulnerabilities, although the authors argue that economies are now better positioned to manage disruptions than in the 1970s.
• Global energy investment is expected to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026. In the US, data centers could consume up to 9% of electricity generation by 2030, versus 4% in 2023.
• Europe requires €584 billion of grid investment by 2030 to meet an anticipated 60% increase in EU electricity consumption, while its Critical Raw Materials Act targets supplies of copper, lithium, cobalt and rare earths.
• The authors favor “HALO” companies with hard-to-replicate physical assets and limited technological obsolescence, including LNG infrastructure, pipelines, utilities, grid operators, equipment manufacturers, copper producers, domestic steel and low-carbon aluminum companies, and industrial-gas providers.

Takeaway: Investors should look beyond traditional energy producers toward the broader ecosystem enabling reliable power and industrial self-sufficiency, while recognizing that the opportunity depends on active, cross-sector analysis of long-cycle infrastructure and resource-security spending.