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International viewpoints: energy transition The energy transition is real, but demand is rewriting the investment debate. July 2026 Article

Energy transitionElectrification & the gridNatural gas & LNG

Our summary

The energy transition is real, but surging electricity demand means investors should assess companies by how they provide reliable power and earn returns across the evolving energy system rather than by old-versus-new energy labels.

  • Global renewable power capacity reached 4,448GW in 2024 after a record 585GW of additions, which represented more than 90 percent of global net power-capacity expansion, according to IRENA.
  • Electricity demand is rising well above historical averages as emerging economies industrialise, electrification accelerates and governments place greater emphasis on energy security and reliability.
  • AI is adding a new source of demand: the IEA expects data-centre electricity consumption to more than double by 2030, reaching a level comparable with Japan's current annual consumption.
  • TotalEnergies combines oil and gas production with LNG, electricity generation, renewables and trading; the investment question is whether hydrocarbon cash flows can fund LNG and power growth while preserving capital discipline.
  • Petrobras has shifted production towards Brazilian pre-salt fields over the past decade, benefiting from scale, reservoir quality and relatively low lifting costs; its case depends more on converting resources into free cash flow than on one oil-price forecast.

Takeaway: Investors should focus on which companies can supply reliable, affordable energy and build the required infrastructure while generating attractive returns, while recognising that the article's views are opinions from July 2026 rather than investment recommendations.

Published by Baillie Gifford. Summary by HF Best Ideas.

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