Global Music Revenues Are Forecast to Rise as Subscriber Growth Beats Expectations

Global music revenues are set to accelerate as stronger subscription growth, live events and new monetization models raise the industry's long-term outlook.

• Goldman Sachs Research forecasts global music revenues to rise from $112 billion in 2025 to almost $200 billion in 2035, with 6.7% growth in 2026 and a 5.8% annualized rate from 2025 to 2035.
• Emerging-market paid streaming penetration is expected to increase from 10% of internet users in 2025 to 15% in 2035, while paid subscribers in developed markets rise from 398 million to 568 million.
• Only about 53% of Americans paid for music streaming in 2025, compared with about 60% for gaming and 90% for on-demand video; developed markets could approach 60% music penetration by 2035.
• A $1 to $2 monthly ad-light tier could support subscriber acquisition, and shifting 10% of free users in developed markets to such a tier could increase global ad-supported revenue by about 8%; direct-to-consumer artist revenue could grow from tens of millions of dollars today to hundreds of millions over the next decade.
• Live music revenue is forecast to grow 6% in 2026 and at a similar compound rate through 2035, supported by arena and stadium demand, stronger touring incentives and several dozen new venues expected within five to seven years.
• AI music tools were used monthly by only a mid-single-digit percentage of consumers in the fourth quarter of 2025, while about 55% of creators had used an AI tool during the preceding year, mainly for production or mastering; Goldman expects near-term displacement to concentrate in lower-value music.

Takeaway: The revised outlook supports exposure to streaming, live music and rights holders, with subscription conversion, pricing, physical collectibles and AI monetization providing the main growth levers while higher royalties and economic uncertainty remain relevant constraints.