View from the markets: Déjà vu: What’s next for markets after the latest spike in oil prices?

The article argues that the latest oil-price shock should eventually reverse, favouring gold, technology hardware and selected equity segments rather than a broad defensive rotation.

• This is the sixth oil-price spike since the Iran war began, and each previous episode was followed by a period of falling prices; the latest move also pushed global government-bond yields higher and equities lower.
• Energy was the only sector with positive average returns across all six episodes, while materials also benefited from broader commodity strength but remained negative on average; utilities ranked among the top four sectors in only two episodes.
• Technology hardware was the second-best-performing sector despite negative returns in four of six episodes, suggesting that its near-term AI-driven earnings growth has reduced its sensitivity to higher discount rates.
• The Nasdaq, emerging-market technology stocks and MSCI EM Asia were among the most consistent regional outperformers, while the Russell 1000 Value benefited from its significant energy exposure.
• When oil prices fell in the historical episodes, gold gained nearly 7% per month on average, with gold miners and materials also outperforming; technology hardware again ranked near the top.

Takeaway: Investors expecting oil prices and interest rates to stabilise or decline may favour gold, AI-related technology infrastructure and selected emerging-market technology assets, while the Russell 2000 could benefit from a stable or falling-rate environment; the main risk to technology is weaker AI earnings growth rather than rates themselves.