US Consumer Blues

US economic resilience is weaker than headline growth, wealth and asset-price data suggest because affordability pressures are depressing consumer sentiment.

• US consumer sentiment remains near its May 2026 record low despite full employment, real GDP growth above 2% annually, record stock prices and record home values.
• Household net worth rose by $11.3 trillion to $185.7 trillion in Q2 2026, but the top 1% owns 32.5% of it while the bottom 50% owns only 2.3%; about 35% of Americans do not own homes and 42% are not invested in stocks.
• Real wages have been hit by inflation in 2022, 2025 and 2026, while higher gas prices linked to the Iran war are worsening consumer confidence even though fuel represents a small share of household budgets.
• The monthly payment for a typical homebuyer is 139% above its pre-pandemic level, and the median first-time-buyer age reached 40 in 2025 versus 30 in 2008.
• In 2025, 25.2 million adults under 35 lived with their parents, equal to 33% of that population; 70% of them were employed, indicating that employment alone does not resolve affordability pressures.

Takeaway: A recession is neither inevitable nor likely on the author's view, but investors should be cautious because growth is heavily dependent on the AI capital-expenditure boom and could face an air pocket if that boom slows and expectations for its beneficiaries are reset.