Trade survives, but the battle for control intensifies: 3 calls for global trade

Global trade should remain resilient in 2027, while ownership, technology and investment become the main sources of geopolitical pressure.

• ING expects global goods trade to grow by about 3% year on year in 2027 despite shipping disruptions, changing tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
• Strong demand for AI-related investment and infrastructure should support trade flows, especially in Asia, while selective US-China decoupling may redirect production and investment toward third countries.
• Governments could require companies to restructure, separate sensitive operations or divest strategic assets, causing trade growth to stall or contract even as goods continue to cross borders.
• ING's bold scenario is an EU-China trade war involving mandatory 50:50 joint ventures, local ownership requirements, acquisition restrictions and tariffs reaching 50% in sensitive sectors such as vehicles, chemicals, machinery and electronics.
• China represents roughly 15% of global goods trade and the EU around 13.5%; together they account for almost 30%, while the EU is China's largest goods trading partner and China is the EU's second-largest.

Takeaway: The base case is continued trade growth, but investors should monitor ownership restrictions and EU-China tensions because a full-scale conflict would become one of the most consequential economic disputes of the modern era.