Time to Look Up: Why Space Is Worth Revisiting

The space economy remains an attractive long-term growth sector despite the cooling enthusiasm following SpaceX’s IPO.

• SpaceX estimates that Starship could eventually cut launch costs below $100 per kilogram, versus roughly $2,700/kg for Falcon 9 today.
• Planned Starlink deployments could raise launch frequency to roughly one mission every two weeks from 2027, while satellite launch volume could grow by more than 40% annually through the end of the decade as around 40,000 satellites enter orbit.
• Profitability is spreading beyond launch providers: Starlink reportedly generates EBITDA margins above 60%, Planet Labs posted its first year of positive adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026, BlackSky reached a 14.2% adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter of 2026, and ICEYE exceeded a 40% EBITDA margin last year.
• The United States is targeting a crewed Moon landing in 2028 and China one by 2030, creating demand for rockets, landers, communications systems and other infrastructure from commercial companies including SpaceX and Blue Origin.
• Global government space budgets have more than doubled since 2014; the U.S. administration requested $71 billion for the Space Force in fiscal 2027, while the proposed Golden Dome missile-defense architecture could cost $1.2 trillion over 20 years.

Takeaway: The pullback in space stocks may offer an opportunity because falling launch costs, rising demand, improving profitability and higher government spending support the sector, although the investment case remains exposed to execution, technology and government-spending risks.