This AI Economy

AI infrastructure investment is becoming a dominant driver of both equity-market earnings and U.S. economic growth.

• AI infrastructure stocks generated nearly one-third of S&P 500 earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026; their contribution is expected to exceed half for the rest of 2026 and reach 64% in 2027.
• These stocks represent 42% of S&P 500 market capitalization and 38% of consensus 2026 EPS.
• Consensus hyperscaler CapEx rose from $546 billion at the start of 2026 to $789 billion, implying more than 90% year-over-year growth from 2025; spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion in both 2027 and 2028.
• The projected 2027–2028 annual CapEx exceeds the $1.47 trillion increase in U.S. nominal GDP recorded in 2025, illustrating the scale of the buildout.
• AI-related CapEx added nearly one percentage point to quarterly real GDP growth from 2025 through the first quarter of 2026, while imports of telecom equipment, semiconductors and industrial equipment pushed net exports lower; the pattern continued in the second quarter.

Takeaway: Investors should recognize that AI infrastructure is already materially shaping earnings and GDP, but the concentration of market value and earnings expectations also makes the outlook increasingly dependent on continued hyperscaler spending.