The spike settles, the curve stays inverted - Options Brief - 9 November 2026

Short-dated equity protection has become cheaper, yet the inverted volatility curve and elevated tail pricing keep Tuesday’s US inflation report as the market’s main near-term test.

• The one-day volatility gauge fell 21.93% to 28.73 on Friday, while the VIX declined 9.01% to 25.64 and the one-year gauge fell 1.22%.
• S&P 500 options priced a 1.25% move for Monday’s expiry and 2.54% through Friday, implying roughly 1.1% per session from Tuesday to Friday around the inflation release.
• SKEW rose 2.80% to 153.55 as the VIX fell, while implied correlation declined 2.20% to 20.47, still about twice its 10.48 median.
• The S&P 500 gained 0.31% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.41% and the Stoxx 600 lost 1.00%, pointing to a narrow rebound.
• Put demand remained evident in major index-fund trades, while Nvidia’s implied-volatility rank fell to 83.2 from 97.8 and remained at the 99.6th percentile of its one-year range.

Takeaway: The options market is easing some immediate hedging demand while retaining protection against a sharp decline, so Tuesday’s inflation data could determine whether the curve continues to normalize or remains inverted.