The Commodities Feed: US midterm elections key for oil market

Commodity markets are likely to remain volatile, with oil driven by US-Iran tensions, gas by winter weather, metals by risk aversion and physical tightness, and grains by improving supply prospects.

• ICE Brent rose almost 2.4% on Friday to above $113/bbl, while the December 2026 contract expired at $117.64/bbl; the market is weighing potential US-Israeli strikes on Iran against renewed diplomatic efforts.
• Attacks on Russian refineries resumed after a roughly two-week pause, while Russia plans to export 2.15 million tonnes of diesel in November versus just over 500kt in October; further strikes could support the gasoil crack.
• OPEC+ left December output targets unchanged, although most members are producing below target because of Persian Gulf disruptions; Brent speculative net longs rose by 3,576 lots to 245,457, well below the March peak of about 430,000.
• European TTF gas settled more than 6% higher near EUR104/MWh as colder-than-usual weather threatened large storage withdrawals; EU storage had peaked at just under 75% and was already declining.
• Gold fell 3.65% to $3,874.62/oz, silver dropped more than 6% and its October decline reached about 18%, while copper's LME cash-to-three-month backwardation remained elevated at $174.85/t and the Yangshan premium exceeded $200/t.
• CBOT corn fell nearly 11% in October as US harvesting reached 60% by 25 October and export sales declined 15% week-on-week to 1,303.9kt; speculative net longs fell by 90,314 lots to 55,314.

Takeaway: Investors should expect continued commodity volatility, with geopolitical developments and weather offering the strongest near-term catalysts, while elevated oil and gas prices pressure precious metals and improving agricultural supply weighs on grains.