The case for UK retail parks

UK retail parks should outperform most UK real estate sub-sectors through 2030 because value-oriented demand, convenience and constrained supply support rents and returns.

• UK consumer spending reached £1.8 trillion in 2025, around 60% of GDP; Click & Collect sales rose from £8.9 billion in 2019 to £22.3 billion in 2025, while 41% of consumers said they would pay more for convenience.
• Real household disposable income has grown by less than 1% a year since 2020, and 57% of UK consumers identified the cost of living as the main influence on retail choices in 2022; value operators accounted for 86% of new out-of-town grocery openings in 2024, versus 57% in 2020.
• Retail parks offer low-cost, accessible locations: rent as a share of retailer sales fell from 8% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2025, service charges are typically below £2 per square foot, and average rents are £17.50 per square foot.
• Discount variety and grocery operators now occupy 22% of retail park floorspace, more than twice their 2015 share; Aldi and Lidl increased their combined UK grocery market share from 14% to 18% since 2020.
• Vacancy is around 3.5%, footfall rose 1.4% in the 12 months to June 2026, and annual development averaged below 250,000 square feet from 2020 to 2025 versus 4.1 million square feet from 1990 to 2000.

Takeaway: Capital Economics forecasts total returns of approximately 8.3% per annum for UK retail parks in 2026-2030, supported by income, rental recovery and limited new supply, although shopping centres are forecast to deliver more because of their higher-risk income profile.