SNDO report November 2026 preview: Revised borrowing requirement

Nordea expects Sweden’s National Debt Office to reduce government borrowing and bond issuance as the economic outlook and budget balance improve.

• Since the SNDO’s May projections, central government net borrowing has been SEK 39.8bn below forecast, mainly because net lending to authorities was SEK 38.9bn lower than expected.
• Nordea estimates GDP growth at 2.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, compared with the SNDO’s May forecasts of 1.6% and 2.2%; unemployment is forecast at 8.5% and 7.8% respectively.
• The 2026 net borrowing requirement is expected to fall by about SEK 50bn to SEK 150bn, while the 2027 requirement is forecast at SEK 170bn excluding lending to the Riksbank, down from SEK 208bn.
• The Riksbank plans to fund around SEK 200bn of its foreign currency reserve through SNDO foreign currency loans, with issuance starting in Q1 2027 and spread over 12 to 18 months.
• Nominal government bond issuance is expected to decline to SEK 220bn, with weekly auction volumes of SEK 4.5bn to SEK 5.0bn; foreign currency borrowing is projected at SEK 166bn in 2027 and SEK 72bn in 2028.

Takeaway: Lower borrowing needs should reduce money-market and nominal-bond supply, although fiscal policy, the formation of Sweden’s government and military support for Ukraine could produce an even lower or higher outcome.