Predictable by Design

Ferrari’s deliberate scarcity and customer discipline make its growth unusually predictable, allowing it to combine luxury-company economics with resilience despite slower growth and electrification risk.

• Ferrari produced 13,640 cars in 2025 versus 11.2 million for Toyota, yet achieved a 28.1% return on invested capital, ahead of major listed luxury houses; mass-market manufacturers typically earn below their cost of capital.
• Ferrari has applied a supply constraint since Enzo Ferrari’s era, and every limited edition launched since its 2015 listing sold out before public reveal; Greater China shipments remain below 10% of volumes to limit geopolitical and demand risk.
• Demand quality is visible in the order book, which extends through the end of 2027: 84% of new cars went to existing Ferrari owners and 56% to customers owning more than one Ferrari.
• Ferrari guides more extensively than other luxury peers, targeting around €9 billion of revenue and an EBITDA margin above 40% in 2030; personalisation has lifted its share of car revenue from 15% at listing to 20% today.
• Growth is constrained because 85% of sales come from cars and spare parts, while the €240,000 Amalfi is the entry point; electrification remains the key risk, with the 2030 mix expected at roughly 40% combustion, 40% hybrid and 20% electric, versus a higher electric share previously envisaged.

Takeaway: Ferrari’s limited volumes, affluent repeat customers and long order book trade faster growth for unusual visibility, supporting its place in Seilern’s investment universe; the transition to electric powertrains remains the principal risk, although the brand, hybrid performance and regulatory flexibility make it manageable.