Plate tectonics as the basis for successful stock picking – Part 2

West Africa offers compelling gold-equity opportunities because improving mining jurisdictions, geological potential and direct project execution can outweigh geopolitical risks.

• Guinea’s extractive industry contributes about 20% of GDP and more than 90% of exports; the government is expanding bauxite refining and has launched its first gold refinery.
• Guinea has cancelled 129 exploration permits and 51 mining licences since 2025 under a “use-it-or-lose-it” policy, concentrating opportunities among better-funded operators.
• Predictive Discovery and Robex Resources are targeting about 500,000 ounces of annual production by 2030 from Kiniero and Bankan, versus roughly 200,000 ounces currently; Kiniero is expected to produce 157,000–174,000 ounces in 2026 at US$1,100–1,300 per ounce.
• In Côte d’Ivoire, mining’s GDP contribution has risen to 5%, with government targets of 8% by 2030 and 14% by 2040; Montage Gold’s Kone project is over 80% built, within its US$885 million budget, and is expected to produce 300,000 ounces annually.
• Turaco Gold’s Afema project already contains 4.65 million ounces at 1.3g/t after being acquired in 2024, while its location near Abidjan, roads and hydropower provide strategic advantages despite difficult rainy-season access.

Takeaway: The authors favour high-quality, well-funded West African gold developers, arguing that first-hand project checks and relatively predictable permitting can create advantages over Tier 1 jurisdictions, while geopolitical and execution risks remain important reservations.