Nomura Asset Management Investment Outlook Autumn 2026

Nomura expects persistent inflationary pressure and further rate hikes, but sees AI investment and corporate earnings limiting the risk of a severe economic slowdown.

• Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel on September 9 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, while rising tanker freight rates are expected to sustain consumer cost pass-through for roughly the next six months.
• The ECB, Federal Reserve, and Bank of Japan each raised rates by 0.25 percentage points in September; Nomura forecasts further Fed hikes in December 2026 and March 2027, ECB tightening in December 2026, and Bank of Japan hikes in December 2026 and June 2027.
• U.S. long-term yields are expected to rise further because of additional Fed tightening and heavy issuance by AI-related companies; Japanese yields should also rise, while expected ECB cuts entering 2027 may only partly lower euro-area rates.
• Earnings-growth forecasts for 2026 exceed 30% for the S&P 500 and approach 20% for both the STOXX Europe 600 and TOPIX, supporting equities despite the risk that higher rates compress forward valuation multiples.
• Nomura expects the yen to remain range-bound because intervention risks offset capital outflows and wider rate differentials, while the euro should weaken against the dollar next year without a major depreciation.

Takeaway: Investors should prepare for elevated oil prices, simultaneous central-bank tightening, and higher long-term yields, while monitoring whether resilient AI demand supports risk assets or whether doubts about that demand amplify the downside scenario; an earlier easing of Middle East tensions would instead lower rate expectations and support markets.