Multi Asset Tactical View

Global equities should remain favoured despite tighter monetary policy and energy risks, while sovereign bonds stay under pressure and commodities retain structural support.

• September was difficult for markets: global equities returned -0.8% over one month, global sovereign bonds -2.6%, while commodities gained 0.5%; Brent crude briefly exceeded USD 100 per barrel before ending near USD 98.
• Equity preferences favour emerging markets, supported by the AI cycle in South Korea and Taiwan, as well as Japan and the euro zone; six-month returns were 23.6% for emerging markets, 18.5% for Japanese equities and 14.4% for euro-zone equities.
• US equities remain supported by AI-led earnings, but their six-month gain of 17.7%, elevated valuations and rising yields call for selectivity; subdued Chinese fundamentals limit conviction in emerging markets.
• Sovereign bonds are viewed cautiously because energy-related inflation, hawkish central-bank repricing, fiscal strains and heavy issuance weigh on yields; US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds returned -2.7% and -2.5% over six months.
• Oil gained 9.9% over six months and copper 16.1%, supported respectively by tighter supply and grid investment, while gold fell 10.8% as real yields and the dollar rose; robotics and automation are presented as a structural equity theme driven by ageing populations, labour shortages, AI and lower computing costs.

Takeaway: The recommended stance is constructive on equities, commodities and the US dollar against the euro, but cautious on sovereign bonds, US high yield and emerging-market fixed income; the main risks are prolonged energy shocks, higher yields, fiscal deterioration and a reversal of US growth or AI momentum.