Market Snapshot: Four-Casting the Future of Work

AI is more likely to reshape the composition and productivity of employment than to cause a generalized collapse in jobs, especially as demographics may create labor shortages.

• The August nonfarm payroll rebound from July’s negative reading confirms labor-market volatility around a lower gear, while employment remains resilient under a “low hire, low fire” equilibrium.
• Two forces could disrupt this equilibrium: AI is reshaping labor demand, while population aging and slower immigration constrain labor supply.
• Glenmede identifies four paths: AI-resistant work, AI-automatable work, AI augmentation that raises worker productivity, and entirely new occupations that current data cannot yet capture.
• Since ChatGPT’s launch, employment in automation-exposed industries has fallen 3.5% below its late-2022 level, while augmentation-exposed employment has risen 2.8% above it; AI-resistant employment has increased by a similar amount.
• The analysis uses payroll indexes rebased to 100 in November 2022, but the authors caution that classifications are subjective and that monetary policy, sector cycles, and other factors mean the divergence cannot be attributed to AI alone.

Takeaway: Investors should focus less on the uncertain pace of aggregate job destruction and more on which workers and sectors can meet rising demand, while recognizing that future AI-created occupations remain impossible to measure today.