Market Outlook November 2026

The outlook argues that expensive US markets and rising capital costs are increasing downside risks, while India offers a more selective equity opportunity as earnings and macro conditions recover.

• The West Asia conflict has entered its eighth month, Brent crude peaked at $120 per barrel before falling below $100, and global bond yields reached their highest level since 2002.
• Nasdaq market capitalization fell by $5 trillion in one month, October global index declines included 16.7% in Indonesia, 16.4% in Brazil and 10.3% in Korea, and AI-related stocks reached 49% of the S&P 500.
• Hyperscaler capital expenditure is rising while free cash flow is being squeezed, with Meta increasing its equity offering to about $98 billion as its free cash flow turned negative for the first time.
• US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion and is rising by $1 trillion every 180 days, while government deficits and investment in AI, defense, energy and grids compete for global savings.
• India's Nifty 500 delivered 23.4% year-on-year revenue growth and 29.0% reported profit growth in Q2FY27, while 57% of Nifty 500 stocks recorded negative two-year returns and 63% traded more than 15% below their 52-week highs.

Takeaway: The authors see expensive US equities, concentrated AI exposure and higher long-term yields as key portfolio risks, while India's improving earnings, depressed breadth and heavy FPI selling support selective stock-picking over index-wide exposure.