Lunch with the Real World

Megaforces are making commodities more strategic, weakening traditional portfolio assumptions and separating resilient AI capex from increasingly selective credit.

• Technology companies and governments are securing metals for resilience rather than simply responding to the economic cycle; Anglo American discussed equity stakes with technology firms, while Glencore and Mercuria committed $1 billion to the U.S. critical-minerals reserve, Project Vault.
• Bonds remain useful in growth shocks, but inflationary shocks and sovereign stress could make gold and real assets better diversifiers; the combined value of listed miners is still below Nvidia’s market value.
• Europe’s core problem is insufficient growth and equity investment rather than savings: households hold about €10 trillion in bank deposits, roughly 80% own no stocks, bonds or funds, and Mario Draghi estimates annual investment needs of €750 billion to €800 billion.
• China’s housing market remains weak, but easing price declines in September could signal stabilization; the author sees a possible future commodity surprise while cautioning that the recovery is not confirmed.
• AI capex is accelerating, with SemiAnalysis raising its 2027 data-center capacity forecast from 43 gigawatts to around 50 gigawatts, while tighter credit is pressuring leveraged neocloud companies and could become a spending constraint if debt-funded demand weakens.
• The value of AI collateral remains uncertain: Elon Musk said older Nvidia H100 chips now rent for more than when new and that compute could have a six-month payback next year, but this is only one heavily investing company’s view.

Takeaway: Investors should reconsider rigid labels such as cyclical, defensive and uninvestable, monitor whether selective credit becomes a constraint on AI spending, and examine real assets and European equity financing alongside the risks of sovereign stress and overleveraged projects.